STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has maintained his substantial lead over his rivals ahead of the country’s election on February 14, according to an opinion poll released yesterday.
The survey by local pollster Indikator Politik, which polled 1,200 respondents in the December 30 to January 6 period, showed that Prabowo was the preferred choice of 45.8 percent, Reuters reported. Around 25.5 percent supported former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, ruling party’s Ganjar Pranowo was the top choice of 23 percent of respondents, while a further 5.8 percent were undecided.
With less than a month to go before Indonesia’s presidential elections, defence minister Prabowo Subianto enjoys a massive 20% lead over his nearest rival, the only question is whether that will translate into the votes he needs to avoid a runoff: which means on Feb 14 he must win over 50% of the vote.
Subianto has accordingly done some smart maneuvering, taking on Gibran Raka as his running mate. Gibran is the son of current President Joko Widodo, and Subianto evidently hopes the former’s support base will back him.
The election is being closely followed in India given the growing economic relationship (close to $40 billion) and a slowly broadening political and strategic relationship.
Indonesian candidates are urged to address human rights concerns ahead of the 14 February election.
Around 205 million people are eligible to vote and will choose the country’s next president, vice president, members of the House of Representatives, and local parliamentarians. Incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.
The fourth televised presidential election debate on Sunday – on energy, natural resources, agriculture, the environment and indigenous communities — saw VP candidates Muhaimin Iskandar and Mahfud MD clash with front-runner Gibran Rakabuming Raka on issues ranging from industrial development to agrarian reform.
Gibran, Jokowi’s eldest son, defended and vowed to continue the policies of the incumbent administration. Experts called the debate largely devoid of concrete solutions.
VP candidate Muhaimin Iskandar questioned the government’s lack of seriousness in preparing for the renewable energy transition, saying the energy and renewable energy target, which was supposed to be reduced to 23 percent by 2025, was actually only reduced to 17 percent.
Gibran Rakabuming asked rival Muhaimin Iskandar if he was “anti-nickel” during the debate on Sunday evening after the latter’s team reportedly claimed that the metal was losing popularity to lithium ferro-phosphate (LFP) batteries in the global electric vehicle (EV) market.
Gibran kicked off his speech by reaffirming the need to process Indonesia’s abundant natural resources –- be it mining minerals or agricultural commodities — at home. He also talked about building Indonesia’s “digital downstream industry.”
Mahfud M.D. raised concerns about the continuous increase in fertilizer subsidies by the government while the landscape of agriculture-based businesses is shrinking. Why This Presidential Front-Runner Is Stirring Fears of the ‘Death of Democracy’ (New York Times 1/21)
Although he dons different personas, the strongman bona fides of Prabowo Subianto date to when Indonesia was a dictatorship led by his former father-in-law. Prabowo Subianto has spent the past two decades trying his hand at democratic politics, donning different personas in multiple attempts to become Indonesia’s leader.
A victory for Mr. Prabowo, his critics warn, would revive a dark past. “What will happen is the death of democracy,” said Hendardi, the director of the Setara Institute for Democracy and Peace.
While all three candidate pairs for the February presidential election have toured key battlegrounds to garner more votes in recent weeks, they are also embracing online personas that have bloomed organically on social media through memes and fandom.
Presidential candidate Anies Baswedan has benefited the most from this phenomenon, especially after a supporter made him an account called Anies Bubble on X, formerly known as Twitter, that resembles a K-pop idol fan page.
Jokowi is facing mounting criticism for his perceived favouritism towards front runner Prabowo Subianto, a factor some analysts said could hold his poll numbers down and lead to a run-off scenario.
Presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo suggested that public officials who participated in the 2024 general election such as Prabowo, Gibran, Muhaimin Iskandar, and even his own running mate, Mahfud M.D., should resign from their positions.
Buzzing is a fast-growing industry in Indonesia and across Southeast Asia, which involves individuals and groups being paid to create and share political propaganda online. Over the past decade, armies of buzzers have been promoting candidates and party issues, or creating hoaxes and disinformation. “Buzzers are entrepreneurs who have learned they can make good money from this and so they are starting their own businesses,” said Ika Idris, associate professor of Public Policy at Monash University.
According to a survey by the pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia released in September, creating jobs and reducing unemployment was the second-most-pressing issue that Indonesian voters thought the next leader must address, at 19%, behind only keeping prices of basic necessities low (31 percent). The three presidential candidates have ambitious targets for job creation. Prabowo has vowed to create 19 million new jobs, Ganjar 17 million, and Anies 15 million in the next five years.
Gerindra Party presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto told a public event that violence would tear the country apart and that no one should resort to violent means to attain political power. Speaking in a gathering organized by graduates of United States universities who are followers of State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir, Prabowo said that he called for a cessation of violence during the street rallies staged in 2019 to protest the outcome of the presidential election that year.
Nachrudin, a Charta Politika Indonesia researcher, said that Prabowo-Gibran “stagnated” at 42.2 percent, while Ganjar-Mahfud electability increased to 28 percent in the most recent survey, conducted between Jan. 4 and 11, increasing the pair’s second-round chances.
The Indonesian Defense Ministry has recently been in hot water for its post on X (formerly Twitter) that promotes presidential candidate pair Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka. On Sunday, January 21, the ministry uploaded photos of houses for the Indonesian Military soldiers on X with hashtags including #PrabowoGibran2024.
“PrabowoGibran2024 #PrabowoSubianto #MenhanPrabowo #KSAU #Kemhan #KemhanRI #TNIAU,” the ministry’s official X account, @Kemhan_RI tweeted on January 21.
The post was flooded with comments from netizens protesting and questioning the neutrality of the state apparatus. They also mentioned the accounts of the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the Election Supervisory Board (Bawaslu).
Garibaldi “Boy” Thohir, the older brother of Erick Thohir attended the ETAS alumni event for presidential candidate number two Prabowo Subianto at Plaza Senayan. On this occasion, Boy said the ETAS volunteers were probably one-third of the contributors to the Indonesian economy, including the Djarum Group, Sampoerna Group, and Adaro Group. More than 100 volunteers are ready to help make the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair win in a single round.
Prabowo Subianto attended the Erick Thohir United States Alumni (ETAS) volunteer meeting at Plaza Senayan in Jakarta. Prabowo said that he felt honored to have been invited by Garibaldi Thohir, also known as Boy Thohir, among the businessmen from the U.S. alumni class in the 1980s and 1990s. He was also grateful for the trust and support shown by ETAS volunteers.
Djarum’s Spokesperson Budi Darmawan said he had no understanding or knowledge of Boy Thohir’s statement that the clove cigarette manufacturing company would make one of the candidate pairs win.
Political analyst Ujang Komarudin from Al Azhar University Indonesia views vice presidential candidate Mohammad Mahfud MD’s decision to resign from his position as the Chief Security Minister as an attempt to evade accountability for unresolved legal issues in Indonesia.
During the presidential debate on Sunday, Mahfud mentioned that “Indonesia’s ‘legal sword’ is dull and is at the root of the nation’s problems.” “If it’s dull, the one responsible is Mahfud. Don’t evade and avoid responsibility,” Ujang.
Vice presidential candidate Mahfud M.D. during the debate revealed that revoking a mining business license (IUP) was not easy because many illegal mining fields are protected by officials and authorities.
Responding to this statement, Army Chief of Staff General Maruli Simanjuntak said that TNI soldiers or officers were no longer involved in illegal mining. Maruli explained that currently the TNI has strictly enforced military law and severe punishment against all soldiers who involved in prohibited activities such as illegal mining.
Indonesian President Jokowi has found himself in hot water for saying a sitting president could back and campaign for any presidential candidate, providing further fuel to his critics that he has been abusing his powers and reportedly creating a rift within his cabinet.
Jokowi has offered mixed messages regarding his neutrality in the past, saying in September he would “meddle” in the election to ensure that his successor would continue his programmes, while in November stating “all regional, provincial … and central government apparatus to be neutral [in the election]”
Association for Elections and Democracy (Perludem) researcher Usep Hasan Sadikin said the President’s statement had a domino effect in local governments, making Bawaslu’s task of overseeing election implementation more difficult.
In an interview with U.S. Media Newsweek, presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto emphasized his commitment to strengthening Indonesia’s defense and security.
Prabowo stated that if he wins the 2024 presidential election, he intends to expand defense and security to include not only military aspects but also food, energy, and water security. He is also determined to guarantee defense and security by creating comprehensive prosperity for the people.
The interim chief of the Corruption Eradication Commission or KPK Nawawi Pomolango said conflict of interest is not a mere seed of a corrupt act, but corruption itself.
Nawawi relayed the statement in response to the mind-numbing amount of political activities conducted by state officials ahead of the 2024 general elections, including Indonesia’s president Jokowi Widodo or Jokowi. Recently, social assistance has been used as a campaign prop.
“What is clear and seen often now is several state officials conducting activities in the scope of general elections,” he said in a written statement.
