Foto Parpol yang akan diikut Pemilu 2024 ditambah Partai Ummat
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT. Predicting the situation of political and security in 2023 does not an easy assessment. Teoritically, predicting the situation of political and security in 2023 is going to start with scanning and following politic and security strategic progress during 2022, then searching syntoms which will repeat in 2023, after that it is going to analysist or predicted including its future damage control.
“The Prediction of political and security situation in 2023” which are analysist foresight steps are how the dynamics of global and regional political and security situation during 2022 which is going to be one of reference predicting political and security situation in 2023. How the dynamics of Indonesia’s political and security situation during 2022 which is going to be one of reference predicting political and security situation in 2023 and foresight of political and security situation in 2023.
Conclusion of this study are firstly, global and regional political and security condition in 2023 is predicted it will get the negative impacts of invation or war between Russia and Ukraine which is supported by NATO and allies, and its condition can go worst if much of trigger nuclear war will appear in 2023.
Secondly, if global and regional condition will go to worst steps in 2023 caused by Russia vs Ukraina’s war, Covid-19 and unpredicted factors, so multi global crisis will happen, so many of countries will take policy to cover their national resilience firstly rather than doing investing, giving humanitarian assistance etc.
The impacts to Indonesia are Indonesia’s state budget will bleed, national revenue and income outflow will bother, many of problems and hurdles will come, the new capital city program will stop, unemployment, poverty and lastly political and security instability can occur caused by economic downturn or economic turbulence, which was caused unfinished global dynamics.
Thirdly, homegrown terror cells which are not catch during law enforcement operation will probably make their attacks in 2023 by lone wolf, sporadic and still targeting “thogut (the National Police, the Indonesian military and civil government apparatus), but it is predicting that terror groups in Indonesia will face many obstacles to recruit their new members in the future.
