Flaf of Iran-Wikipedia
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT. Israel has conducted targeted assassinations of Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah figure close to Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, and Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political office. In addition to these killings, Israel is also believed to be behind the assassination of Hajj Habib Zadeh, a senior figure in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in Damascus. These killings are in retaliation for what Israel claims was a Hezbollah rocket attack in the Majdal Shams area of the Golan Heights over the weekend, which resulted in the deaths of twelve children. The locations of these attacks and the high level of the individuals targeted threaten to widen the already severe conflict. The US reportedly warned Israel that Iran and its proxies could consider such actions in Beirut and Tehran as a violation of the established boundaries of the current rules of engagement. These actions have significantly heightened regional tensions and made the prospect of peace increasingly elusive.
While no entity has claimed responsibility for the assassination of Haniyeh, who was visiting Iran to attend the inauguration of Tehran’s newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, Israel is the only actor in the region with the motive and capabilities to execute this kind of targeted killing. Additionally, Israel is unlikely to claim responsibility, as it would put further pressure on Iran to retaliate. Israel has an extensive history of conducting assassinations on Iranian soil. Over the years, Israel has engaged in a range of covert operations in Iran, from killing nuclear scientists to assassinating a high-ranking al-Qaeda leader, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, back in August 2020. Israeli operatives have also stolen Iranian nuclear files and conducted numerous acts of sabotage against Iranian targets.
It is possible that Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet made the decision to kill Haniyeh at the time to reverse the Israeli government’s dwindling popularity domestically. A recent poll by Israeli Channel 12 indicates that two-thirds of Israelis would prefer Netanyahu to retire from politics. Simultaneously, certain factions in the Israeli government have been openly calling for more aggressive military action, even against the expressed desires of some senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) figures. Hawkish voices in Israel seek to fully confront Iran, solidify a tighter grip on control over the West Bank, and possibly invade southern Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah and other militant groups’ capabilities. The strategy of the Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be to provoke adversaries, potentially inciting reactions that can be used to justify ongoing or future military operations. While this approach may prove fruitful for Netanyahu politically, it is myopic and works at cross purposes to the objectives of Israeli hostage families seeking to secure the release of their loved ones still being held in Gaza.
The assassination of Haniyeh will likely scuttle Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and any hostage release deals that were being negotiated. Because of the role of Haniyeh in hostage negotiations, any good faith left to continue dialogue has most likely been extinguished. Ceasefire negotiations in Doha and Cairo have been stalling for months. Still, the high-level assassination could be the final straw. Additionally, this new level of confrontation by Israel could push Iran and its ‘Axis of Resistance’ proxies to cross the lines already existing under their current rules of engagement, leading to a wider regional war.
The assassination of Hamas’ political leader will likely not change the operational capabilities of Hamas in Gaza. Yet, the psychological and symbolic ramifications could be profound. Haniyeh’s death leaves a void in Hamas’ leadership abroad, especially in diplomatic circles. Since Hamas is composed of various factions with different priorities and levels of extremism, fragmentation or internal strife may occur. However, it is more likely that a rally ‘round the flag effect could occur around a newly appointed leader, moving past internal disagreement and existing fissures in the short term.
The assassination of a high-ranking official like Haniyeh in Tehran has once again showcased the vulnerabilities within Iran’s security apparatus. Israel has previously been implicated in the targeting of nuclear specialists, scientists, and military figures in targeted assassinations on Iranian soil. However, the status of Haniyeh and the symbolism of the assassination happening right after the inauguration of Pezeshkian, which drew various leaders from the “Axis of Resistance” to Tehran, make it a particularly incendiary event. One of the consequences will likely be increased scrutiny and potential overhauls of security measures in Iran as it seeks to patch up its vulnerabilities and repair its reputation as a regional power. An additional second order effect is that the recent events will make it far more challenging, if not impossible, for Pezeshkian to credibly pursue his campaign promises of improving relations between Iran and the West.
The U.S. has historically been a key ally of Israel and might feel compelled to intervene to support its strategic partner, particularly if Israel faces coordinated attacks on multiple fronts. However, the U.S. will have to walk a fine line if it further supports Israel in such confrontation; domestically, protests and criticism of Israel’s approach in the Middle East ballooned with Netanyahu’s visit to the United States last week. The potential for escalation highlights the importance of diplomatic efforts to manage tensions and prevent conflicts that could have far-reaching consequences. The current situation underscores the complexities and potential dangers of escalating military actions in an already volatile region, raising concerns about the long-term stability of the Middle East and the global repercussions of such conflicts.
