STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT. The Indonesian government is reportedly preparing to sign the revised National Military (TNI) Law, which was formally approved by the House of Representatives (DPR) on March 20. A Gerindra Party source indicated State Secretary Minister Prasetyo Hadi is preparing for the signing. The finalized version is expected to be released about a week after Eid al-Fitr, once it has been officially signed by the government.
Students are protesting across Indonesia, demanding the repeal of a law passed on March 20 that they say threatens to bring Indonesia back to the days of military dictatorship. Many worry that the government has plans for further expansion, pointing to how the government has already pushed some officers into positions that they legally cannot occupy.
Even measured analysts worry that the law contributes to a long-running trend, noting many officers are keen to take on an expanded role. Part of this is the simple fact that the military is top-heavy, with many officers occupying jobs with minimum responsibilities, creating pressure to find more meaningful positions for them.
Edna C. Pattisina, the co-founder of Indonesia Strategic and Defence Studies (ISDS) said Indonesia’s revised TNI Law expands the military’s role beyond traditional defense, including cyber defense and protecting citizens abroad. A key focus is the potential evacuation of 350,000 Indonesians in Taiwan in case of conflict. Out of a combination of pragmatic economic interest and concern about an evolving U.S. situation, “free and active” Indonesia is increasingly inclined towards China.
Indonesia hopes that China will exercise restraint over Taiwan — but if conflict does erupt in the Taiwan Strait and China is the aggressor, particularly if Indonesian citizens are affected, there will certainly be domestic pressure on Prabowo to scale back relations with China. Anti-China factions may exploit this sentiment to undermine Chinese businesses currently thriving in Indonesia. However, in the second scenario, Indonesia hopes there will be an agreed corridor of humanitarian assistance involving all parties. Apart from the Philippines, China would be the nearest place for evacuation.
According to Carolyn Nash, Asia advocacy director at Amnesty International, every Thursday evening, a group of activists assembles in front of the presidential palace in Jakarta, Indonesia’s congested capital city. They wear matching black t-shirts and carry signs demanding accountability for a legacy of military-led human rights abuses. Some appeal for information about the fate and whereabouts of 17 students who were forcibly disappeared by the military while protesting Indonesia’s repressive New Order government in 1998. For 18 years, the group, which includes parents of the missing students, has taken a small but committed stance against a military that once threatened the safety and well-being of civilians across the country.
