Presiden Turki Reccep Tayyib Erdogan
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Iraq yesterday, the first time the Turkish leader has made the trip in more than a decade. Erdogan last visited Iraq in 2011, when he was the prime minister of Türkiye. A host of issues are on the agenda for Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, including discussions related to counterterrorism, trade, water, and energy. During the visit, Erdogan also met with Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid. In a joint news conference, Erdogan said: “I believe that my visit and the agreements just signed will constitute a new turning point in Türkiye-Iraq relations.” The visit is a step forward in resetting the bilateral relationship between Ankara and Baghdad, enshrined with a strategic framework agreement that covers the litany of issues of mutual concern. In all, more than twenty separate memorandums of understanding (MOUs) were signed during the visit, including cooperation on agriculture, health, and education. Iraqi Government spokesperson Bassem al-Awadi agreed with Erdogan’s assessment, commenting that Erdogan’s trip to Iraq represents “a major starting point in Iraq-Turkish relations.”
At the top of the list of priorities is counterterrorism cooperation, namely, dealing with the issue of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist group adhering to Marxist-Leninist ideology and which seeks to establish an autonomous Kurdish state in parts of Türkiye, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. The group has long waged an insurgency in southeastern Türkiye while maintaining its headquarters in northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The United States declared the group a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) in 1997, although the U.S. has partnered with Kurdish groups considered by Ankara to be affiliates of the PKK in the fight against the so-called Islamic State in Syria. The PKK has been active since the 1980s and is responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands from its long-running guerrilla insurgency. Türkiye appears to be gearing up for a major offensive against the PKK at some point this summer, with the objective of dealing the group a serious blow, and, in the process, establishing a 30–40-kilometer security corridor along the border. A significant component of security cooperation between Iraq and Türkiye will be focused on beefing up border patrols and clearing out any terrorist or insurgent strongholds from the countries’ respective borders.
A meeting last month between the foreign ministers of Iraq and Türkiye laid the groundwork for this week’s discussions, with the Iraqi National Security Council levying a ban on the PKK in March, although Baghdad stopped short of declaring the PKK a terrorist organization. Türkiye has a recent history of ground incursions and airstrikes targeting suspected PKK enclaves in Iraqi Kurdistan. Baghdad has complained about the violation of its sovereignty, so this week’s talks are aimed at resolving the issue going forward. Al-Sudani made it clear that Baghdad will work to ensure that Iraqi soil is not used as a launching pad for attacks against any country in the region.
There is growing concern that the PKK could threaten the prospects of the Iraq Development Road, a new rail and road infrastructure project that aims to connect Türkiye with the Persian Gulf. The ambitious transit corridor project is intended to rival the Suez Canal, and is part of a $17 billion deal signed by Iraq, Türkiye, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The 1,200-kilometer Iraq Development Road would connect the Grand Faw Port in Basra, Iraq, to Türkiye and Europe through transportation and logistical infrastructure. The megaproject has some significant competition, not least of which is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing’s signature foreign policy initiative, as well as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), first announced during the G-20 Summit last September in New Delhi. A memorandum of understanding for the IMEC was signed by the United States, India, the European Union, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, and Italy.
Energy and water were discussed at length in an effort to help resolve disputes related to each. Discussions also focused on the resumption of oil flowing through a pipeline in northern Iraq to Türkiye, which has been shut down since March of last year. An arbitration court ruled that Türkiye must pay Iraq approximately $1.5 billion for oil export revenues that bypassed the Iraqi central government in Baghdad. Legal and technical issues have held up the process of reopening the pipeline — lost revenue from the pipeline has cost Iraq approximately $14 billion total, according to an estimate produced by the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan. Getting the oil flowing again will take some further negotiations, according to individuals closely involved with the talks. The negotiations will continue with the regional government and oil producers.
