STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT. Jakarta’s gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a battle between two popular former governors, Anies Baswedan of Jakarta and Ridwan Kamil of West Java, as political parties start throwing their weight behind either of the two prospective candidates.
When asked if he wanted to pair with Kaesang, Jokowi’s son, for the election, Anies said his first priority was to form a coalition and then choose a candidate for deputy governor.
PSI Chair Kaesang Pangarep said that he did not need his father President Jokowi’s blessing or permission to team up with Anies Baswedan in the 2024 Jakarta region. Kaesang emphasized that he had the right to run in the election and select his partner, particularly given PSI’s seat in the Jakarta Regional Legislative Council (DPRD).
According to Pradana Boy Zulian, Visiting Fellow at the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Senior Lecturer at University of Muhammadiyah Malang (UMM), Indonesia, and Vice-Dean for academic affairs at Faculty of Islamic Studies UMM, in Indonesia’s political history, Islamic parties, collectively, have never been a dominant force. Their best performance was in the 1955 election, the Republic’s first. Back then, the total vote percentage gathered by them was 43.5 percent. Of the four parties with the highest voters, two were Islamic parties, Masyumi (7,903,886 votes) and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) (6,955,141 votes), with the other two being Partai Nasional Indonesia (PNI) (8,434,653 votes), and Partai Komunis Indonesia (PKI) (6,179,914 votes).
However, after 1955, Islamic parties underwent a steady decline. The trend continued during the Suharto New Order period (1966–1998). Even in the post-New Order period, after political restrictions were lifted and political space opened for all groups, Islamic parties never managed to repeat their 1955 showing. Throughout the Reformasi era, the vote share of Islamic parties swung between 16 percent and 30 percent.
The Islamic parties’ vote share from year to year are as follows: 1971 election (26.0 percent), 1999 election (36.8 percent), 2004 election (38.1 percent), and 2009 election (29.0 percent). The 2024 election recorded a similar pattern. If the National Mandate Party (PAN) is considered “Islamic” and included, then all Islamic parties gained about 30 percent. But if PAN is excluded, then Islamic parties only secured about 23 percent of the popular vote. In the past, PAN was undoubtedly categorised as an Islamic party.
However, in recent years, some have questioned whether it can be considered as such, since its primary motivation is national development despite it originating from Muhammadiyah, the second largest Islamic organisation in Indonesia. A split within PAN’s ranks further fuelled questions of its Islamic identity. On 29 April 2021, PAN’s key founder, Amien Rais, founded the splinter Partai Ummat to move in a more conservative Islamic direction.
The Jakarta Post Editorial Board have written that the Constitution grants the president the prerogative to replace cabinet members at any time, especially if they fail to perform or to follow the head of government’s policies and directives. Outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is by no means an exception, although many regard another reshuffle of his Onward Indonesia Cabinet as unnecessary given that he will leave office in four months.
Rumors about a Cabinet reshuffle have gained traction after Jokowi gathered leaders of political parties that support his government, minus the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), late last month, during which the President reportedly raised the idea of replacing ministers who did not support his programs sometime in June. The party leaders, however, suggested that Jokowi refrain from shaking up the Cabinet, citing as their reasoning that his term will soon end.
Jokowi has denied reports about the Cabinet reshuffle talks, but Communications and Information Minister Budi Ari Setiadi, who also leads Jokowi’s largest volunteer group Projo, believes the President has not ruled out such a move.
In order to demonstrate who is in charge in the last few months of his government, Jokowi may feel he has to make changes to his cabinet, if he believes that some of the ministers are not on the same page as him. He may have to replace cabinet members who are not fully committed to his presidency, or else they will make it difficult for him as he seeks to leave a lasting legacy.
President-elect Prabowo Subianto met with leaders of parties that backed his bid for the country’s highest office, but the notable absence of key allies of President Jokowi renewed speculation about whether the incoming president’s allegiances could be shifting.
President-elect Prabowo Subianto may play a key role in a planned meeting with Anies Baswedan as the prospects for a wildcard Jakarta election pairing of Anies and Kaesang Pangarep grow dim, complicated by a rift between their political backers. As talk of Anies possibly joining forces with the younger son of outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo for the Jakarta gubernatorial election continues, Anies has said he is willing to meet with Prabowo before the race in November, noting that “exchanging ideas” with all parties is essential.
President Joko Widodo or Jokowi has specifically called for political stability ahead of the transition of power. As is widely known, he will complete his second term of office on October 20, and Prabowo Subianto, the winner of the 2024 election, will succeed him. Prabowo’s running mate in the election was Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s eldest son. “We must prioritize political stability. This is important to ensure that there is no political turbulence so that the transition from the current government to the next government is smooth and seamless,” he said during a plenary cabinet meeting at the State Palace in Jakarta.
Nuurrianti Jalli, Visiting Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, and Assistant Professor at the School of Media and Strategic Communications, Oklahoma State University; and Maria Monica Wihardja, Visiting Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and Adjunct Assistant Professor at the National University of Singapore, the 2024 Indonesian elections have highlighted the growing influence of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) on the democratic process, raising legitimate concerns about their impact on the integrity of future elections. From the circulation of AI-generated content to the use of micro-targeted advertising and personalised messaging, the impact of AI on campaign strategies and voter perceptions and behaviours has become increasingly apparent.
The use of AI in electoral campaigns has evolved significantly since its early applications in the mid-2010s, when AI-driven algorithms were employed by platforms like Facebook for user community-building and targeted political advertising.
