French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to China was met with criticism in many corners of the West, with politicians and commentators panning his obsequiousness with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It was clear that Macron, lavished with attention and adoring crowds during his three-day official state visit, enjoyed being the center of attention. But he returned to several pointed rebukes for his embrace of Xi and his comments about Taiwan, the international system, and the U.S.-European relationship. Macron stressed the importance that Europe avoid becoming “vassals” of the United States and even suggested that Taiwan was not a European problem, sending a dangerous message. “The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction,” said Macron. These comments undoubtedly pleased Xi, who is positioning China as a counterweight to the United States and increasingly attempting to promote China’s vision of the world, one which Macron seemed to agree with, or at least accept during the state visit. Macron is embattled on the homefront, unpopular with the French public as he pushes through pension reforms. But abroad, he’s not done much better, delivering ill-timed and out-of-touch remarks that bordered on naivete.
Macron also spoke of a multipolar world without any “blocs,” adopting Chinese lexicon and seeming to agree with Xi’s view of global affairs. One of China’s primary objectives is to find an opportunity to divide the United States and Europe. A weakened West benefits China and provides the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with greater freedom to maneuver, politically and economically. Beijing has repeatedly accused Washington of operating with a Cold War mentality and frequently complains about what it sees as the United States’ dominant role in the international system. The Elysée Palace put out a statement after Macron returned attempting to clarify his statements, reiterating the importance of Paris’ relationship with Washington, stressing “shared values.” In the past year, Macron has been heavily criticized for his overtures to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly rebuffed the French leader’s efforts to encourage a ceasefire or negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Macron has long spoken about the concept of strategic autonomy, advocating a Gaullist version of French foreign policy. Yet the reality has proven different.
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that NATO, which Macron described as “brain dead” just three years ago, continues to rely on the United States for leadership, military capacity, and above all nuclear deterrence. Years before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European-led interventions in Libya and the Sahel, revealed key capability gaps within Europe’s militaries. To overcome these shortfalls, European commanders had to rely on the United States for critical enabling functions, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), suppression of enemy air defense, air-to-air refueling, and strategic lift.
The Ukraine invasion has also highlighted European states’ divergent security and defense interests. A majority of Central and Eastern European countries consider Russia their top security threat, while countries like France rank terrorism and Mediterranean stability as their security priorities. Within Europe, Hungary remains an outlier for its reluctance to criticize Russia. President Putin will continue to seek fissures within, and between, the European Union (EU) and NATO, working to split partnerships and attenuate opposition to Russian actions in Ukraine. As European countries seek to wean themselves from Russian energy supplies, Moscow might retaliate in unpredictable ways.
Following Macron’s return to France, a member of the German parliament Norbert Röttgen claimed that “Macron has managed to turn his China trip into a PR coup for Xi and a foreign policy disaster for Europe.” On a visit to China last week, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock took a far tougher stance on Taiwan, noting that “a unilateral, to say nothing of a violent, change of the status quo would be unacceptable to us as Europeans.” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also sought to offer a united European front on Taiwan, as did European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who accompanied President Macron on the China visit, and whose posture has stood in contrast to Macron’s continued acquiescence. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki voiced his clear disapproval of Macron’s visit, noting that “you cannot protect Ukraine today and tomorrow by saying Taiwan is not your business.” These criticisms, and the divisions they highlight, are indicative of the growing pains Europe will continue experiencing as the Union and its Member States redefine their respective foreign and defense policies in a fast-changing geopolitical landscape.
