STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT. During a meeting with U.N. Secretary General António Guterres on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s strategy in negotiating with Ukraine had changed after a “provocation” over allegations against Russian troops in Bucha.
“Unfortunately, after reaching agreements and after our clearly demonstrated intentions to create favorable conditions for the continuation of negotiations, we encountered a provocation in the village of Bucha,” Putin said to Guterres. However, Putin did not say no to peace through diplomatic negotiations, while saying Ukraine carried out provocations in order to gain sympathy from Western countries.
Putin said Guterres on Tuesday that the military operation in Ukraine was a “desperate step” to end the “suffering” of people in the eastern part of the country. Putin said Russia had responded to requests for assistance from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, where Moscow had recognized their independence. “Unfortunately, our Western counterparts choose not to pay attention to everything,” Putin said.
The United States promised on Monday to reopen its embassy in Kyiv soon, as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Ukraine’s capital and hailed its success so far against Russia’s invasion. Both men said the fact they were able to come to Kyiv was proof of Ukraine’s tenacity in forcing Moscow to abandon an assault on the capital in March and promised more aid to fend off Russian troops now attempting an advance in the east. Austin told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that what Ukraine has done in repelling the Russians in the battle of Kyiv is extraordinary and inspiring.
In a meeting in Kyiv on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy new aid worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The U.S. has approved the sale of ammunition worth $165 million along with foreign military financing worth more than $300 million.
Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov on Sunday said the work of the Russian Embassy in Washington, D.C., is “blockaded,” with its bank accounts being closed and staff receiving threats.
Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev on Tuesday said Ukraine will disband and split into several countries due to current Western policies, including the policy of Western-controlled Kyiv.
The United States and its allies pledged a new, heavier arms package for Ukraine at a meeting Tuesday at the Ramstein air base, Germany, and dismissed threats from Moscow that support and weapons for Kyiv could lead to nuclear war, the Straits Times reported on Wednesday. U.S. officials shifted their emphasis this week from talking about helping Ukraine defend itself to bolder talk about a Ukrainian victory that would undermine Russia’s ability to threaten its neighbors.
The Ukrainian conflict entered its third month earlier this week. The humanitarian corridor deal did not work as planned, and one of the reasons is that the situation on the ground does not promote an atmosphere conducive to ending the war. Two top U.S. officials, Defense Minister Lloyd Austin and Foreign Minister Antony Blinken, visited Kyiv on Sunday and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Aside from pledging an additional $713 million, the visit signaled a shift in the type of weapons supplied.
Unless they are provoked, there is little chance that Washington and its allies would deploy troops and be directly involved in the war. However, Moscow may read the bloc’s shift differently, and in response to the latest development, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said NATO was effectively “joining the battle against Russia through its proxies.”
It is extremely dangerous if hostile rhetoric by the United States, the West, or Russia becomes reality. The world would be plunged into the agony of disastrous conflicts like in 1914-1918 and 1939-1945. There must be a concerted attempt to de-escalate the Ukraine conflict. The world must support Turkey’s efforts to bring together Russian and Ukrainian officials. China, Russia’s ally, should not only make declarations about the importance of diplomacy and negotiations. Beijing, like Istanbul, should strive to mediate the situation. In other words, create more opportunities to talk and less to pull the trigger.
