By: Toni Ervianto
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT- Recently, global political constellation has colored by Russia vs Ukraine crisis which it has been worried by several countries could create world war III. Meanwhile, several countries have predicted get gain if Russia-Ukraine crisis take a long time such as Qatar related to energy supply and United States related to military tools and munition.
At least, 14 countries such as India, Egypt, France, South Korea, Iran, England, Pakistan, Israel, Afghanistan, Chinese, Russia, Syria, North Korea and United States which will get worst impact if world war III happens. Germany and Israeli will neutral on this crisis.
An economic reasons will make Germany on the neutral position, and Israeli has reason to neutral because both Russian and Ukraine peoples majority are jews. Meanwhile, France President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese Prime Minister Xi Jinping were travelled to Moscow, and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went to Kiev, Ukraine to minimalizing the climate of crisis between Russia and Ukraine.
Actually, Ukraine-Russia crisis have happened when Ukraine will separate from Russia power hegemony and they want to joint with NATO, so Russia has responded it. Ukraine is security and defence buffer zone for Russia and for those purpose Russia has been intensively opposite with NATO’s plan to invite ex Soviet territory to join at NATO. Several times, Rusia has been warning NATO to cancel their plan. The presence of NATO and United States military forces in Ukraine has pushed Putin to make decision for defending their territory including ex Soviet’s territory.
According to Alexander Gabuev, Asia Pasific Programe in Carnegie Moscow Center, several facts have been proven that high tension with western countries have developed Chinese-Russia cooperation such us on military weapons, weapons developing capacity, and military training between two countries.
The idea of a just war is often premised on two normative conditions. The first is the idea of a jus ad bellum, or the justification for engaging in war. This is most often defended in terms of a state’s right to self-defence analogous to individuals.
The argument is that individuals are justified i n engaging in self-defence against unjust aggressors. The second normative condition of a just war is its jus in bello, or the justice arising within war. This relates to the justification of how states engage in war.
The fact that a state may possess a just cause for war does not entail that this state would be justified in fighting the war however it might choose. Instead, there are normative constraints on how just wars should be fought if the military action is to be considered a ‘just war’. This concept had stated by Thom Brooks at Just War Theory (2013). According this theory, if Russia vs Ukraine war happens, they are using normative principle of war are “a jus ad bellum, or the justification for engaging in war.”
Geographic size—as measured in square miles. Population size—as measured by numbers of citizens. Technological development—as measured by yearly iron and steel production and/or energy consumption. Military strength—as measured by the number of men and women in armed forces and/ or by annual defense spending. Political stability—as measured by the number of months since the last unconstitutional change of regime. This concept has stated by J David Singer.
According to J David Singer’s point of view, Russia does not equal contender for Ukraine. From military strength, according to Global Fire Power, Rusia at second position under United States related to military capability or strength. The total Russian military personnel number 1.35 million people. Consists of 850,000 active personnel and 250,000 reserve personnel.
In the air dimension, Russia controls a total of 4,173 aircraft (the world’s number two). Among them there are 772 units of fighter aircraft (world number three), 445 units of transport aircraft (world number two), and 1,543 helicopter units (world number two). On the ground, Russia has 12,420 tanks (world number one).
Plus 30,122 armored vehicles (world number three), and 3,391 rocket launchers (world number one). In terms of sea, Russia’s total assets amount to 605 (world number two). Among them are one aircraft carrier (world number three), 15 destroyers (world number four), 70 submarines (world number two), and 59 patrol boats (world number 15).
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military strength on 22th position around the globe. The total military personnel of Ukraine number 500,000. It consists of 200,000 active personnel, 250,000 reserve personnel, and 50,000 paramilitaries.
In the air dimension, Ukraine’s total assets amount to 318 units (ranked 31st in the world). Among them are 69 fighter jets (world number 32), 32 transport aircraft (world number 22), and 112 helicopters (world number 34).
On the ground, Ukraine has 2,596 tanks (world number 13). Plus there are 12,303 armored vehicles (world number six) and 490 rocket launcher units (world number 12). On the marine dimension, Ukraine’s total assets amount to 38 units (number 53 in the world). Ukraine only has one frigate and corvette each plus 13 patrol boats and one marine mine set.
